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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.